Prediction case notification rates for tuberculosis in eight countries

Seng Hansun


This article describes a novel approach to predicting tuberculosis case notification rates based on historical data for the eight countries with the highest tuberculosis rates. Using a relatively new prediction method known as Brown’s Weighted Exponential Moving Average, we produced excellent prediction results for the selected countries. In one example, we describe the implementation of the proposed tuberculosis case notification rates prediction model in China, which led to the most accurate prediction result in the study. The effectiveness of this new method was confirmed by our calculation of the prediction error using the mean absolute percentage error, showing that China had the lowest mean absolute percentage error value at 2.3606444%. New research results confirm that there is an increasing trend in tuberculosis case notification rates for most countries included in this research. These results can be used to support the decision-making process for all related stakeholders, including the governments of these countries, when managing the spread of tuberculosis.



Keywords: Brown’s weighted exponential moving average, case notification rate, high burden countries, prediction, tuberculosis.

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